Four thoughts about Tiger Woods in the wake of the PGA Championship.
Monday, August 17th, 20091. He’s human. This is important to point out, since in the past his robotic firing of approach shots and sinking of putts has so consistently made him untouchable when holding a lead.
2. Tommy John. Tiger didn’t have Tommy John surgery last year, but an analogy to it may be apt. Woods is in only the first year of recovery from major knee reconstruction. Baseball pitchers who come back from Tommy John surgery often find that their velocity (i.e. strength) comes back first, then some ability to control pitches accurately, and then . . . later . . . the ability to control pitches consistently. The first season back is usually the season for good velocity and spotty control; the second season back is when you look for refined command of pitch location to go along with the velocity.
If the analogy holds — and from watching just a little of Woods this year, I think it might — it makes sense that Woods isn’t there yet in terms of both power and consistent control. You’ll see him make a couple of great, hyperaccurate, Woodsian shots, and then hit a shot or two that are off in terms of length, spin, or line.
3. Margin for error. It’s possible that Woods’s past rivals in major tournaments have made miracle shots like the one Y. E. Yang made on the 14th hole on Sunday. That shot gave Yang the lead that over Woods that he never relinquished. (Yang’s 18th hole, by the way, was superb, and he clearly deserved the win.)
It’s possible, I say, but we don’t remember those shots because in many of those earlier tournaments Wood was defending an unassailable lead. If you’re ahead by six strokes, a miracle eagle by an opponent suddenly means you’re ahead by . . . four strokes. And if you’re Tiger before knee reconstruction, four strokes with less than a round to play is still unassailable. His inconsistency this year has removed that margin for error.
4. Look out for Tiger next year. Don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you know? While it’s conceivable that Woods could play like he is this year for the rest of his career, showing flashes of greatness but without his former consistency, my bet is that he’ll recover completely from his knee injury, regain his control, and use his frustrations from this year as high-test fuel for a dominating 2010. If you told me you had looked into your crystal ball and saw that Woods will win three majors and 12 tournaments overall next year, I wouldn’t bat an eye.
